Does High IV Actually Mean Better and Safer Trades?
Undoubtedly, a lot of option traders tend to view high implied volatility as the ideal environment for selling premium. The logic seems pretty straightforward: when IV moves higher, premiums get larger, time decay speeds up, and on the surface, the setup can look more attractive. But the question is — does it actually play out […]
How to Manage Risk During Sudden Volatility Spikes or Market Crashes
Most option traders know that volatility can work against short premium strategies. But when volatility suddenly spikes — or, for example, the market drops faster than expected — it often catches people off guard. Even setups that usually feel relatively safe can start to break down pretty quickly. So, in this piece, we take a […]
IV Percentile: How to Use It Without Misinterpreting It
A data-driven guide using 10 years of real SPY options data (2016–2026) to help you better understand IV Percentile and avoid the most common mistakes when evaluating short premium setups. Part 1: The Concepts — Let’s Start Simple Imagine you’re looking at a speedometer while driving. The speedometer tells you your current speed, but it […]
Skew and Term Structure: How They Affect Your Short Premium Setups
A data-driven guide using 10 years of real SPY options data (2016–2026) to show you exactlyhow volatility skew and term structure affect every short premium entry you make. Part 1: The Concepts — Let’s Start Simple Imagine you’re buying car insurance. You pay a monthly premium, and if something badhappens, the insurance company covers the […]
How I Teach People to Use Expected Move & IV Rank to Time Entry
Why Most Traders Get Timing Wrong When people ask me “when should I sell options?”, the usual answer they hear is “when IV is high”. That’s only half the story. I teach a clearer method using two simple tools: Expected Move and IV Rank. Together they show not just “is IV high?”, but “does the […]
Win Rate vs Expectancy in Option Selling
Executive Summary This report explores the relationship between win rate and expectancy in option selling strategies using SPY data from January 2021 to March 2026 (~1512 trading days). The analysis centers on at-the-money (ATM) option selling setups with various days to expiration (DTE), highlighting how high win rates do not always lead to strong profitability […]
The 30/60/90 DTE Playbook: How Duration Interacts with Volatility Regimes
Why Fixed DTE Often Underperforms Across Environments Many traders select one DTE — for example, around 45 days — and apply it consistently regardless of market conditions. This approach feels reliable and simplifies decision-making. However, volatility behaves differently in calm versus turbulent periods. In low-volatility environments, longer-dated options tend to exhibit slower premium erosion. In […]
SPY Implied vs. Realized Volatility
Executive Summary This report analyzes the historical relationship between implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) for SPY options using data from January 2023 to February 2026 (~776 trading days). The analysis focuses on at-the-money (ATM) options with ~30 days to expiration (DTE) and compares IV to: Key findings: In summary, the backtest reveals a […]
AAPL Short 17Δ Call Strategy: Backtest Analysis and Findings
This report analyzes a short call option strategy on Apple Inc. (AAPL) using historical data from Feb 2023 through Jan 2026 (approximately 751 trading days). The strategy involves selling one out-of-the-money AAPL call option with roughly 17 delta and about 45 days to expiration (DTE), with two management variants: Performance Summary: Both strategy variants produced […]
Fade the Hype, Define the Risk: How the Bear Call Spread Keeps You in Control
This post shows you how to use a Bear Call Spread (call credit spread) to get paid when price stalls or fades, using a repeatable, rules-first setup (17-delta short strike, ~45 DTE), plus simple adjustment/roll rules to keep emotions out of it. When You Quit Calling Tops and Started Trading Rules: It’s Tuesday afternoon. SPY […]
