Win Rate vs Expectancy in Option Selling
Executive Summary This report explores the relationship between win rate and expectancy in option selling strategies using SPY data from January 2021 to March 2026 (~1512 trading days). The analysis centers on at-the-money (ATM) option selling setups with various days to expiration (DTE), highlighting how high win rates do not always lead to strong profitability […]
The 30/60/90 DTE Playbook: How Duration Interacts with Volatility Regimes
Why Fixed DTE Often Underperforms Across Environments Many traders select one DTE — for example, around 45 days — and apply it consistently regardless of market conditions. This approach feels reliable and simplifies decision-making. However, volatility behaves differently in calm versus turbulent periods. In low-volatility environments, longer-dated options tend to exhibit slower premium erosion. In […]
SPY Implied vs. Realized Volatility
Executive Summary This report analyzes the historical relationship between implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) for SPY options using data from January 2023 to February 2026 (~776 trading days). The analysis focuses on at-the-money (ATM) options with ~30 days to expiration (DTE) and compares IV to: Key findings: In summary, the backtest reveals a […]
AAPL Short 17Δ Call Strategy: Backtest Analysis and Findings
This report analyzes a short call option strategy on Apple Inc. (AAPL) using historical data from Feb 2023 through Jan 2026 (approximately 751 trading days). The strategy involves selling one out-of-the-money AAPL call option with roughly 17 delta and about 45 days to expiration (DTE), with two management variants: Performance Summary: Both strategy variants produced […]
Fade the Hype, Define the Risk: How the Bear Call Spread Keeps You in Control
This post shows you how to use a Bear Call Spread (call credit spread) to get paid when price stalls or fades, using a repeatable, rules-first setup (17-delta short strike, ~45 DTE), plus simple adjustment/roll rules to keep emotions out of it. When You Quit Calling Tops and Started Trading Rules: It’s Tuesday afternoon. SPY […]
The Bull Put Spread Playbook: Collect Premium with Guardrails
This is a rules-first guide to the bull put spread (put credit spread): how it works, how to pick strikes (~17 delta, ~45 DTE), how to manage winners/losers mechanically, and what risks can still bite you. The Bull Put Spread: A bull put spread (also called a put credit spread) is a credit spread built […]
Get Paid to Wait, Not Worry: A Rules – First Guide to Short Put Options
This article shows you how to sell short puts mechanically (≈17-delta, ~45 DTE) so you can stop improvising strikes, stop managing with emotions, and start trading a repeatable system. Why short puts? Picture this: you’ve watched ten videos, you finally place a trade, and the next morning the market dips. Not a crash. Just enough […]
The Option Greeks Handbook: Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega Explained
A breakdown of Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho, what they really mean, how they move, and how to use them mechanically in your trades. The moment Greeks finally “clicked” You buy a call, the stock rises, and your option still loses money. That is Theta and Vega overpowering a small Delta win. The following […]
Buy the Drop, Not the Drama: A Rules First Guide to Long Put Options
This article shows you how to use long puts with defined-risk shorts to express bearish ideas without blowing up your confidence or your account. Why long puts? A market pushes higher on fumes. Your screen says overbought, momentum cracks, but you have been burned shorting stock or selling calls into face-rippers. You want a clean, […]
Beat Earnings FOMO: Capture IV with the Iron Butterfly
Harvest earnings-driven implied volatility (IV) without sitting on the earnings landmine. Use pre/post windows, non-reporting peers, and a defined-risk iron butterfly with clear trade-or-pass filters and mechanical exits. Trade Thesis: Earnings season is a magnet for traders chasing fast profits, but it is also where many accounts quietly bleed out. The reason is simple: earnings […]
